Updated 16th June - Covering 23rd June - 15th July 2025
High pressure and plenty of dry sunny weather, generally warm, potentially hot end to June, possibly turning more unsettled with nearer normal rainfall into early July
Temperatures during this period are forecast to be above normal, especially in inland parts of eastern England, where potentially they could end up more than 2C above normal. Anomalies of nearer +1C are expected in Northern Ireland and in northern and western Scotland.
It is forecast to be drier than average, but with potential for rainfall to be near normal in north-west Scotland, and locally it may end up wetter than average in areas that are affected by localised downpours, especially in the south, though in those locations, most of the rain will probably fall in just one or two heavy downpours. Some areas could end up substantially drier than average.
Sunshine is forecast to be near normal in Northern Ireland and northern and western Scotland, but above normal in most other regions, especially the east of England.
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Week 2: Monday 23rd June - Sunday 29th June
This week is forecast to see a flattened Azores High frequently ridging into Europe, with a north Atlantic trough at times but generally well to the west of the British Isles. This means that the weather will be predominantly dry, sunny and warm, and potentially hot at times, particularly towards the south-east. There is uncertainty over the speed at which a hot spell around the 20th/21st June will subside between the 21st and 23rd, so there is potential, but not a certainty, of very hot weather sticking around, especially in the south-east, on the 23rd, with temperatures into the low 30s Celsius. Temperatures will be closer to the long-term normal in northern Britain and these nearer average temperatures will push southwards to all parts of the country by the 24th or 25th. There is potential for this change of air mass to bring some rain belts and/or to trigger some thundery showers.
From the 25th we can expect another ridge of high pressure to come in from the Azores and this will bring a spell of generally dry sunny weather and temperatures rising back above the long-term normal again. The north and west of Scotland and Northern Ireland will be more prone to cooler cloudier weather at times, perhaps with some rain at times, chiefly for north-west Scotland, but the dry sunny weather is expected to cover most of the country. There is potential for it to turn very hot towards the end of the week as the Atlantic trough moves closer and we pick up a southerly flow, and an outside chance of parts of England seeing record temperatures for late June, but it is currently uncertain whether the synoptic weather patterns will align so as to push very hot air in from a long way south. Also there is increasing potential for some thunderstorms to develop at the end of the week.
Mean temperatures are thus forecast to be well above the 1991-2020 long-term normal during this week, possibly by in excess of 3C in inland parts of England, but by less than 2C near north and west-facing coasts, particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Although rainfall totals may locally end up near or above normal due to localised downpours and thunderstorms, for most of the country the week is expected to be much drier than average, with potential for some places to remain completely dry.
Sunshine totals are forecast to be above normal in most regions, but probably not far from normal in most parts of Northern Ireland and in western Scotland.
Week 3: Monday 30th June - Sunday 6th July
The weather is forecast to become cooler and more changeable at times during this week, with a predominantly west to north-westerly airflow, though with potential for very hot weather and some thunder at the beginning of the week, especially for southern and eastern England. High pressure is expected to continue to periodically ridge into southern Britain from the Azores, but probably further south than during Week 2, resulting in more of a northwest-southeast split in the weather with cloudier and more changeable weather more frequent for Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England.
Temperatures are again likely to be above the long-term normal, but less so than during Week 2 with most regions coming out about 1C above average, perhaps nearer 2C above in inland parts of eastern England. There is potential for occasional thundery outbreaks particularly for the south, but generally the southern half of Britain is likely to remain drier than average, with nearer average rainfall in Scotland and Northern Ireland, perhaps wetter than average in north-west Scotland. Sunshine totals are likely to be near normal for most of Scotland, Northern Ireland and north-west England and north Wales, but above normal in most other parts of England and Wales.
Rest of month: Monday 7th July - Tuesday 15th July
Confidence is lower for this period but there remains a general signal for high pressure to keep ridging into southern Britain from the Azores, so the odds continue to favour warmer, drier and sunnier than average weather for the southern half of Britain, especially the south and east of England, but with potential for thundery downpours on occasion which could produce localised exceptions to the generally dry tendency. Scotland and Northern Ireland will be more prone to cloudier, cooler and more changeable conditions, but these areas can also expect some fine spells at times.
Monthly weather forecast
The month ahead forecast is written by Ian Simpson and is updated every Monday.
